Skip to content

2013 Senate · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2013-10-12 (4 days before the election) · 1,696 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 54% · Republican 40%

D+14.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.92% · Republican 44.02%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 54 − 40 = 14.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.924 − 44.020 = 10.904
  3. Signed miss = 14.00 − (10.904) = 3.096
  4. Absolute miss = |3.096| = 3.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63728, race ID 1471 (538 database).