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2013 Senate · NJ

Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2013-10-06 (10 days before the election) · 899 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 41%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.92% · Republican 44.02%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 41 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.924 − 44.020 = 10.904
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (10.904) = 1.096
  4. Absolute miss = |1.096| = 1.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63727, race ID 1471 (538 database).