2000 President · MO
Zogby Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 603 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 46% · Republican 44%
D+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.08% · Republican 50.42%
R+3.3
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 46 − 44 = 2.00
- Actual margin = 47.084 − 50.423 = -3.339
- Signed miss = 2.00 − (-3.339) = 5.339
- Absolute miss = |5.339| = 5.339
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.3 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6372, race ID 830 (538 database).