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2013 Senate · NJ

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2013-10-11 (5 days before the election) · 1,393 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 42%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.92% · Republican 44.02%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 42 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.924 − 44.020 = 10.904
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.904) = -0.904
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.904| = 0.904

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63703, race ID 1471 (538 database).