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2013 Senate · NJ

Monmouth University Polling Institute · fieldwork ended 2013-09-28 (18 days before the election) · 571 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 53% · Republican 40%

D+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.92% · Republican 44.02%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 53 − 40 = 13.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.924 − 44.020 = 10.904
  3. Signed miss = 13.00 − (10.904) = 2.096
  4. Absolute miss = |2.096| = 2.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63701, race ID 1471 (538 database).