2000 Senate · NJ
Quinnipiac University · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 679 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 39%
D+8.0
The certified result
Democrat 50.11% · Republican 47.10%
D+3.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 39 = 8.00
- Actual margin = 50.113 − 47.096 = 3.017
- Signed miss = 8.00 − (3.017) = 4.983
- Absolute miss = |4.983| = 4.983
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6370, race ID 1701 (538 database).