2000 Senate · MA
KRC Research · fieldwork ended 2000-10-25 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 68% · Republican 16%
D+52.0
The certified result
Democrat 69.11% · Republican 12.23%
D+56.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 68 − 16 = 52.00
- Actual margin = 69.111 − 12.229 = 56.882
- Signed miss = 52.00 − (56.882) = -4.882
- Absolute miss = |-4.882| = 4.882
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6367, race ID 1693 (538 database).