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2000 Senate · MA

RKM Research and Communications Inc. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-24 (14 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 60% · Republican 11%

D+49.0

The certified result

Democrat 69.11% · Republican 12.23%

D+56.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 60 − 11 = 49.00
  2. Actual margin = 69.111 − 12.229 = 56.882
  3. Signed miss = 49.00 − (56.882) = -7.882
  4. Absolute miss = |-7.882| = 7.882

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6366, race ID 1693 (538 database).