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2000 President · WI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.83% · Republican 47.61%

D+0.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.833 − 47.613 = 0.220
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.220) = -4.220
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.220| = 4.220

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63657, race ID 854 (538 database).