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2000 President · PA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 1,091 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 47%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.61% · Republican 46.44%

D+4.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 47 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.608 − 46.438 = 4.170
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (4.170) = -8.170
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.170| = 8.170

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.2 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63654, race ID 844 (538 database).