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2000 Senate · NJ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 637 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 44%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.11% · Republican 47.10%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 44 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.113 − 47.096 = 3.017
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (3.017) = -4.017
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.017| = 4.017

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63653, race ID 1701 (538 database).