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2000 Senate · NY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-04 (3 days before the election) · 680 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 40%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.19% · Republican 39.15%

D+12.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 40 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.187 − 39.148 = 12.039
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (12.039) = -4.038
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.038| = 4.038

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63652, race ID 1703 (538 database).