1998 Senate · NC
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-30 (4 days before the election) · 1,418 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 54% · Republican 39%
D+15.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.15% · Republican 47.01%
D+4.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 54 − 39 = 15.00
- Actual margin = 51.151 − 47.012 = 4.139
- Signed miss = 15.00 − (4.139) = 10.860
- Absolute miss = |10.860| = 10.860
The poll overstated the Democrat by 10.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63649, race ID 1739 (538 database).