1998 Senate · IN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 1998-10-20 (14 days before the election) · 831 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 63% · Republican 27%
D+36.0
The certified result
Democrat 63.72% · Republican 34.79%
D+28.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 63 − 27 = 36.00
- Actual margin = 63.719 − 34.793 = 28.926
- Signed miss = 36.00 − (28.926) = 7.075
- Absolute miss = |7.075| = 7.075
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63646, race ID 1729 (538 database).