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2000 President · IA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,000 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 46%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.54% · Republican 48.22%

D+0.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 46 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.536 − 48.221 = 0.315
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (0.315) = -4.315
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.315| = 4.315

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63643, race ID 818 (538 database).