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2000 President · AR

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-02 (5 days before the election) · 1,549 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.86% · Republican 51.31%

R+5.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.864 − 51.307 = -5.443
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-5.443) = 3.443
  4. Absolute miss = |3.443| = 3.443

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63642, race ID 808 (538 database).