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2000 President · FL

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 577 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 47%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.84% · Republican 48.85%

even

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 47 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.838 − 48.847 = -0.009
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-0.009) = -1.991
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.991| = 1.991

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63640, race ID 815 (538 database).