Skip to content

2000 President · VA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 897 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 44.44% · Republican 52.47%

R+8.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 44.436 − 52.474 = -8.038
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-8.038) = -1.962
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.962| = 1.962

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63639, race ID 851 (538 database).