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2000 Senate · NJ

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 594 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.11% · Republican 47.10%

D+3.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.113 − 47.096 = 3.017
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (3.017) = 0.983
  4. Absolute miss = |0.983| = 0.983

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63638, race ID 1701 (538 database).