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2000 President · DE

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-30 (8 days before the election) · 776 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 43%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.98% · Republican 41.92%

D+13.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 43 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.978 − 41.916 = 13.062
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (13.062) = -12.061
  4. Absolute miss = |-12.061| = 12.061

The poll overstated the Republican by 12.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63637, race ID 814 (538 database).