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2013 Senate · NJ

Harper Polling · fieldwork ended 2013-10-14 (2 days before the election) · 778 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 41%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.92% · Republican 44.02%

D+10.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 41 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.924 − 44.020 = 10.904
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (10.904) = 0.096
  4. Absolute miss = |0.096| = 0.096

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63634, race ID 1471 (538 database).