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1998 Senate · NY

Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group · fieldwork ended 1998-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 902 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (DEM)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 42%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.82% · Republican 33.67%

D+14.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 42 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.823 − 33.672 = 14.151
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (14.151) = -10.151
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.151| = 10.151

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63632, race ID 1738 (538 database).