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2000 Senate · CA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-29 (9 days before the election) · 1,536 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 38%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.84% · Republican 36.59%

D+19.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 38 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.843 − 36.587 = 19.256
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (19.256) = -9.256
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.256| = 9.256

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63628, race ID 1684 (538 database).