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2000 President · TN

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-28 (10 days before the election) · 722 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 45%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.28% · Republican 51.15%

R+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 45 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.285 − 51.149 = -3.864
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-3.864) = 2.864
  4. Absolute miss = |2.864| = 2.864

The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63626, race ID 848 (538 database).