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2013 Senate · MA

Emerson College · fieldwork ended 2013-06-19 (6 days before the election) · 1,422 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 51% · Republican 41%

D+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.80% · Republican 44.60%

D+10.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 51 − 41 = 10.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.800 − 44.601 = 10.199
  3. Signed miss = 10.00 − (10.199) = -0.199
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.199| = 0.199

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63625, race ID 1472 (538 database).