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2000 Senate · MD

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-26 (12 days before the election) · 696 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 57% · Republican 37%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 63.18% · Republican 36.73%

D+26.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 57 − 37 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 63.178 − 36.734 = 26.444
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (26.444) = -6.444
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.444| = 6.444

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63624, race ID 1692 (538 database).