2000 Senate · WI
Market Shares Corp. · fieldwork ended 2000-10-27 (11 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 60% · Republican 27%
D+33.0
The certified result
Democrat 61.54% · Republican 37.04%
D+24.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 60 − 27 = 33.00
- Actual margin = 61.543 − 37.036 = 24.507
- Signed miss = 33.00 − (24.507) = 8.493
- Absolute miss = |8.493| = 8.493
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 6362, race ID 1715 (538 database).