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2000 President · OH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 929 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 48%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 46.44% · Republican 49.99%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 48 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 46.440 − 49.986 = -3.546
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-3.546) = -5.454
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.454| = 5.454

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63615, race ID 841 (538 database).