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2000 Senate · OH

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 929 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 56%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 35.85% · Republican 59.91%

R+24.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 56 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 35.854 − 59.915 = -24.061
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-24.061) = -1.939
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.939| = 1.939

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63615, race ID 1705 (538 database).