2000 President · NV
Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-23 (15 days before the election) · 817 respondents · IVR
The poll said
Democrat 37% · Republican 49%
R+12.0
The certified result
Democrat 45.98% · Republican 49.52%
R+3.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 37 − 49 = -12.00
- Actual margin = 45.976 − 49.522 = -3.546
- Signed miss = -12.00 − (-3.546) = -8.454
- Absolute miss = |-8.454| = 8.454
The poll overstated the Republican by 8.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63614, race ID 839 (538 database).