Skip to content

2000 President · NY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 781 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 37%

D+11.0

The certified result

Democrat 56.64% · Republican 32.45%

D+24.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 37 = 11.00
  2. Actual margin = 56.639 − 32.450 = 24.189
  3. Signed miss = 11.00 − (24.189) = -13.189
  4. Absolute miss = |-13.189| = 13.189

The poll overstated the Republican by 13.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63611, race ID 840 (538 database).