Skip to content

2000 President · ME

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 1,548 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 43%

R+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.09% · Republican 43.97%

D+5.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 43 = -4.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.086 − 43.972 = 5.114
  3. Signed miss = -4.00 − (5.114) = -9.114
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.114| = 9.114

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.1 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63610, race ID 827 (538 database).