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2000 Senate · ME

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 1,548 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 27% · Republican 66%

R+39.0

The certified result

Democrat 31.06% · Republican 68.94%

R+37.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 27 − 66 = -39.00
  2. Actual margin = 31.059 − 68.941 = -37.882
  3. Signed miss = -39.00 − (-37.882) = -1.117
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.117| = 1.117

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63610, race ID 1691 (538 database).