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2000 President · GA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-22 (16 days before the election) · 1,029 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 50%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.98% · Republican 54.67%

R+11.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 50 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.985 − 54.672 = -11.687
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-11.687) = 1.687
  4. Absolute miss = |1.687| = 1.687

The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63609, race ID 816 (538 database).