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2000 President · KY

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-21 (17 days before the election) · 944 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 48%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.38% · Republican 56.51%

R+15.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 48 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.378 − 56.506 = -15.128
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-15.128) = 6.128
  4. Absolute miss = |6.128| = 6.128

The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63606, race ID 823 (538 database).