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2000 Senate · RI

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-19 (19 days before the election) · 802 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 52%

R+17.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.15% · Republican 56.88%

R+15.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 52 = -17.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.145 − 56.877 = -15.732
  3. Signed miss = -17.00 − (-15.732) = -1.269
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.269| = 1.269

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63603, race ID 1707 (538 database).