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2000 Senate · PA

Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) · fieldwork ended 2000-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 1,043 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 52%

R+13.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.51% · Republican 52.42%

R+6.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 52 = -13.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.509 − 52.416 = -6.907
  3. Signed miss = -13.00 − (-6.907) = -6.093
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.093| = 6.093

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63600, race ID 1706 (538 database).