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2000 President · national

TIPP Insights · fieldwork ended 2000-11-05 (2 days before the election) · 1,292 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47.9%

R+1.9

The certified result

Democrat 48.15% · Republican 47.66%

D+0.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47.9 = -1.90
  2. Actual margin = 48.149 − 47.657 = 0.492
  3. Signed miss = -1.90 − (0.492) = -2.392
  4. Absolute miss = |-2.392| = 2.392

The poll overstated the Republican by 2.4 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63588, race ID 40 (538 database).