2004 President · OH
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 1,218 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 47%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.71% · Republican 50.81%
R+2.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 48.707 − 50.814 = -2.107
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-2.107) = 6.107
- Absolute miss = |6.107| = 6.107
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63581, race ID 790 (538 database).