2004 President · FL
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2004-10-31 (2 days before the election) · 1,433 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 51% · Republican 47%
D+4.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.09% · Republican 52.10%
R+5.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 51 − 47 = 4.00
- Actual margin = 47.091 − 52.098 = -5.007
- Signed miss = 4.00 − (-5.007) = 9.006
- Absolute miss = |9.006| = 9.006
The poll overstated the Democrat by 9.0 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63580, race ID 764 (538 database).