2000 President · VA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 7,488 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 45% · Republican 51%
R+6.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.44% · Republican 52.47%
R+8.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 45 − 51 = -6.00
- Actual margin = 44.436 − 52.474 = -8.038
- Signed miss = -6.00 − (-8.038) = 2.038
- Absolute miss = |2.038| = 2.038
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.0 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63574, race ID 851 (538 database).