2000 Senate · VA
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 7,462 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 52%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.68% · Republican 52.26%
R+4.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 52 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 47.680 − 52.255 = -4.575
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-4.575) = -0.425
- Absolute miss = |-0.425| = 0.425
The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63574, race ID 1712 (538 database).