2000 President · TN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,187 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 49%
R+2.0
The certified result
Democrat 47.28% · Republican 51.15%
R+3.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 49 = -2.00
- Actual margin = 47.285 − 51.149 = -3.864
- Signed miss = -2.00 − (-3.864) = 1.864
- Absolute miss = |1.864| = 1.864
The poll overstated the Democrat by 1.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63572, race ID 848 (538 database).