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2000 Senate · TN

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 5,165 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 35% · Republican 62%

R+27.0

The certified result

Democrat 32.21% · Republican 65.10%

R+32.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 35 − 62 = -27.00
  2. Actual margin = 32.207 − 65.096 = -32.889
  3. Signed miss = -27.00 − (-32.889) = 5.889
  4. Absolute miss = |5.889| = 5.889

The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63572, race ID 1708 (538 database).