2000 President · OR
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 3,376 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 49% · Republican 42%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.96% · Republican 46.52%
D+0.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 49 − 42 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 46.960 − 46.519 = 0.441
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (0.441) = 6.559
- Absolute miss = |6.559| = 6.559
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63570, race ID 843 (538 database).