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2000 President · NV

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,835 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 48%

R+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.98% · Republican 49.52%

R+3.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 48 = -3.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.976 − 49.522 = -3.546
  3. Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.546) = 0.546
  4. Absolute miss = |0.546| = 0.546

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63566, race ID 839 (538 database).