2000 Senate · NE
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,477 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 46%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 51.00% · Republican 48.82%
D+2.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 46 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 50.999 − 48.816 = 2.183
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (2.183) = 4.817
- Absolute miss = |4.817| = 4.817
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63563, race ID 1699 (538 database).