2000 Senate · MN
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 3,793 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 40%
D+10.0
The certified result
Democrat 48.83% · Republican 43.29%
D+5.5
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 40 = 10.00
- Actual margin = 48.834 − 43.293 = 5.541
- Signed miss = 10.00 − (5.541) = 4.458
- Absolute miss = |4.458| = 4.458
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.5 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63562, race ID 1695 (538 database).