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2000 Senate · MI

Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 6,748 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 49.48% · Republican 47.86%

D+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.475 − 47.861 = 1.614
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (1.614) = -1.614
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.614| = 1.614

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63561, race ID 1694 (538 database).