2000 Senate · ME
Harris Insights & Analytics · fieldwork ended 2000-11-03 (4 days before the election) · 1,473 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 28% · Republican 70%
R+42.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.06% · Republican 68.94%
R+37.9
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 28 − 70 = -42.00
- Actual margin = 31.059 − 68.941 = -37.882
- Signed miss = -42.00 − (-37.882) = -4.117
- Absolute miss = |-4.117| = 4.117
The poll overstated the Republican by 4.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63560, race ID 1691 (538 database).